Quote:
Originally Posted by Cred
Good looking @ dead man made $800 profit in less than a week, should’ve put in more.
Definitely glad I don’t listen to hating niggas like @ Answer |
You fail to understand the difference between hating and being rational. Rational is about viewing risks and benefits, probabilities, etc. and choosing the best outcome
If someone says "You should bet $5,000. If you can flip a coin so that it lands on tails twice in a row you win $5,000. Otherwise you lose $5,000", you shouldn't take that bet.
These are all the possible outcomes of flipping a coin twice:
HH HT TH
TT
so you can see that there is only a 1/4 or 25% chance that you'll get tails twice in a row. Meaning there's a 75% chance you'll lose $5,000, and a 25% chance you'll win $5,000. I'm the guy standing on the sidelines saying "Hey, that's a bad deal, don't take that bet" because I'm rational and understand it will result in you losing more often than you will win
now you can be irrational and take the bet because some dude on an internet rap forum told you it was a good idea, and it's entirely possible you'll flip tails twice in a row. People flip tails twice all the time, it's not that it's not possible to do. It's just not the probable outcome.
So you flip tails twice and win $5,000. Congratulations. Then call me a hater, but still fail to realize that the probability was never in your favor and it was still a bad bet to make regardless of whether or not you won.
The only exception that would make this anything other than pure luck is if deadman has privileged information. If you know the coin being flipped is weighted and rigged to always land on tails then yeah, of course you should take that bet. The probability is different now.
but even if deadman had that information, he never provided it to the board. So nobody else has access to that privileged information, which means you have to make the assumption that the coin is not rigged.
Your only justification for "Why" you put money in was "because Deadman told me to" because there was literally not a single piece of information about the coin outside of "Eth > Dbuy", which is the most overwhelming evidence of how irrational and stupid it is to follow that advice. So regardless of whether or not you made money off the crypto, it was still the correct choice to not put money in.